The Resident Knows Not What He's Doing: The Middle East

Resident Martin Luther Lincoln Jr. Jr. seems to want to make good on his promise to meet with our enemies, without preconditions, in the hopes of accomplishing what?  According to the the UK Telegraph, he wants to meet with Syria in the hopes of tearing them away from Iran's sphere of influence.  A noble cause to be sure, but this notion only goes to demonstrate that the Resident has not one clue as to how the map in the region looks.

For years now Syria has been a conduit for Iranian arms and funding to Iran's surrogate army in Lebanon, Hezbollah.  This relationship went full steam ahead after the collapse of Syria's traditional benefactor, the USSR.  Equipped with rotting Soviet equipment, with no new direct source for resupply, the obvious partner to embrace was Iran, who was more than willing to engage in deals with Syria, which already had de facto control over Lebanon, a common necessity in Damascus' and Tehran's common goal of eliminating Israel, as Syria no longer has a directly accessible border with Israel due to its loss of the Golan Heights.  A land invasion via Syria into Israel is now all but a complete impossibility due to the UN run DMZ between the two countries that was created in 1974 to maintain the ceasefire.

Let's look at two issues that should immediately start ringing bells for those interested in maintaining the security of the United States.

First, what could Martin Luther Lincoln possibly offer the Syrians to get them to walk away from Iran?

1. Money
2. Weapons
3. The Golan

Now anyone in their right mind would wonder why we would give money to an essentially rogue country like Syria that harbors and funds terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, both sworn to destroy Israel.  From where I sit that's a conflict of security interest, considering Israel is essentially the only thing standing between Jihadists and Europe, one of the main reasons why many Europeans turned out in the streets to show support for Israel during Operation Cast Lead.

Aside from this, there is another major fallacy in the Resident's thinking.  Syria is not part of Iran's sphere of influence as much as it is under Russia's, as is Iran to a certain extent.  It is Russia that is building Iran's nuclear reactor, and supplying fuel.  Though this is a tiger by the tail situation because it is not in Russia's interests for Iran to have the bomb.  They've been playing this badly, while trying to rebuild Russian influence in Middle East (maybe this has something to do with the continuing mess in Chechnya...whoops!...as well as increasing tensions with the U.S. which Russia would rather not do as it quietly reclaims its regional dominance).  

It is Syria that has negotiated arms deals with Russia in the past year.  And most recently Russia has been talking with Damascus regarding use of the Syrian port of Tartus for Russian naval vessels, already a resupply and maintenance site for the Russian navy (the only port it has use of in the Mediterranean).  The Russian lease on Sevastapol, the Crimean home of the Black Sea Fleet is set to expire in 2017.  Though I suspect that Russia intends to seize the Crimea and thus have de facto control over Ukraine, Tartus could serve as an alternative, though it is far from mother Russia.  Regardless, Russia would love to have a home in the Mediterranean and Tartus is the logical place.  El-Latakia is reportedly going to be fitted with a floating pier, and expanded as well (Israel is obviously not happy about the weapons sales, or the increased Russian naval presence.  The last thing Israel wants is to be drawn into an international conflict that could potentially be precipitated by Russian aggression in Crimea and Ukraine.).

The only thing I could see Martin Luther Lincoln offering Syria that Russia can't is the compromising of Israel's security vis a vis the Golan, which Israel should never, ever give back under any circumstances.  As you can see from the map, it is suicide for Israel not only from a military point of view (Syria regularly shelled northern Israel from the Golan, driving Israelis into bomb shelters for years, like Hamas has been doing in southern Israel, only far worse), but due to the fact that Syria would control the water.  Got news for ya Damascus, ain't gonna happen cap'n.  And the Druze of the Golan, whom Syria likes to say miss their old home, would prefer to be under Israeli control it seems, and I can't say that I blame them, though many are separated from family because of the border.  I have been saying for quite some time that my fear is that Martin Luther Lincoln's Mideast policy is predicated on selling Israel up the Jordan without a paddle.  This will be a major test to that theory (I don't expect Syria to bite, but they will certainly take any money we offer and give nothing to us in return). 

Do you think the Resident has any clue as to this shift with Syria and Russia?  Guess what I think?  I think if he had to meet face to face with Putin, Dear Leader's testicles would recede.  Fortunately he picked a Secretary of State with "testicular fortitude."  

Hold onto your butts.  This is not going to be pretty.